Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Maybe Suicide and Stay?

CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time - Blogs from CNN.com

Nice to see our elected officials having a good time beating up on businessmen that actually make and LOSE money. Taking money by force, spending that and trillions more on pork while flapping your jaws randomly must be quite respectable in some circles. The average person in prison is probably only about twice as trustworthy as 90% of our Senators.

Given the size of the Federal Deficit and the general ineptitude of our government, potentially we would be MUCH farther ahead if the Senators all committed suicide and STAYED in their positions!!

Grassley's initial comments came Monday afternoon during an interview with Iowa radio station WMT. During the interview, Grassley endorsed what he viewed as Japan's corporate model, saying it is customary for failed executives to either relinquish their posts or commit suicide in disgrace.

"In the case of the Japanese, they usually commit suicide before they make any apology," he said during that interview.

I wonder if Chuck is aware that Japan has been in a deeper recession than we are currently in since '92 and shows no sign of getting out? Does he endorse their RESULTS as well as their practices?

Seems to me that committing suicide prior to making the apology at least guarantees that the apology won't be wordy. In the case of the Senators, I think doing the suicide prior to the apology would REALLY save a lot of time -- heck, Biden might never get around to the permanent exit if he was doing an apology with words.



Bottom?


How Will We Know When the Economy Hits Bottom? - NYTimes.com

This article contains 3 very well done charts. There is no way of knowing if history is any guide at all to the future, but it is pretty much the only thing we really have to look at. Based on the P/E ratio, we MIGHT be either just at, or close to a bottom in the market.

The consumer spending chart would indicate that we are still at pretty high levels of spending relative to savings and will likely need to do some more catchup before we "return to the mean".



The housing chart is the most depressing of the 3 -- Fannie, Freddie and the Democrats took us a LONG way up a steep bubble and we likely to have to drop another 30-40% before we are close to returning to THAT mean.




Monday, March 16, 2009

History is no Guide

Commentary: Don't let history be your guide to investing - CNN.com

The following information is quite interesting:

Historically, stocks have produced the greatest long-term return of any financial asset, and "stocks for the long term" was the traditional mantra.

The thinking was that investors took on a worthwhile risk by putting money in stocks rather than taking the guaranteed interest on a U.S. Treasury bond. The idea was that the risk would be justified by stocks posting a better return than bonds. But by the end of 2008, for the first time ever, we saw a 25-year period in which long-term U.S. Treasury bonds actually outperformed the Standard & Poor's 500 stocks

So are bonds a good bet now?

A word of warning about long-term Treasury bonds. I think rates are likely to rise, probably quite sharply, over the next few years, which would clobber the prices of existing bonds. My reasoning: As the world financial panic (which has turned Treasury securities into a supposed safe haven) abates and the impact of huge U.S. government budget deficits is felt as the government has to sell vast amounts of bonds to raise money, rates have nowhere to go but up.

Diversify, Diversify, Diversify ...


Saturday, March 14, 2009

Cutting The Cable

Dreaming of cutting the subscription TV cord | Digital Media - CNET News

In the BO Economy, doing with less is the expectation. One pretty much has to have the internet in the current world unless we are down to ARs and beans over the fire. A discussion of some ways to get by without cable.

An Exception

TSA to look at Vitter airport incident - CNN.com

CNN managed to do a negative article on a Republican Senator without having "R" in the headline, or even in the article! I must admit to amazement.

I'd guess this would never even make the news at all if it were a Democrat, but never the less, I have to give them accolades for not following their normal pattern.

I did enjoy the inclusion of the 2007 item -- are we going to include that Joe Biden quit a Presidential bid due to plagarism and Teddy Kennedy was involved in the death of a young woman (not his wife)? or maybe they will include "David Geitner -- admitted tax cheat" whenever he does something?

I'm not holding my breath.


Friday, March 13, 2009

Ecclesiastes 7:4

There's No Pill for This Kind of Depression - WSJ.com

KJV says it best: "The heart of the wise is in the house of mourning; but the heart of fools is in the house of mirth."

I think Peggy is back from being "lost", but the Bible verse says it as best as is possible. We are still pretty close to a 50/50 nation in reality. Right now BO's numbers are still high because about 10% of the people that know better are still giving him the benefit of the doubt in hope against hope that this won't be as bad as it looks -- so he is at 60% popularity as opposed to 50. The people that produce, invest, once dreamed of having a future, thought their kids could have a bright future, believed in what had always been America -- those kinds of folks are now mired in a depression that goes beyond mere financial ruin. They see that the core values of America have been squandered and we are careening to being "Really Western Europe", or some yet unknown Pagan Socialist Pauper Nation -- "On Nation Under Nothing" -- or maybe just "Under".

Two, the economy isn't the only reason for our unease. There's more to it. People sense something slipping away, a world receding, not only an economic one but a world of old structures, old ways and assumptions. People don't talk about this much because it's too big, but I suspect more than a few see themselves, deep down, as "the designated mourner," from the title of the Wallace Shawn play.


What I see around me is essentially "the loss of the future". For people in their 40's and 50's, they have seen 12 years of their investing lives go up in smoke, and any last vestiges of job security blow away (if not their actual jobs). They look out at the early wreckage of "the change", and they see no hope of a recovery that allows them to postulate a future any better than most likely a cinder block appartment in a government building where they will essentially be "a ward of the state". The future that looks most likely to them from today is a future that scarcely would have crossed their mind 6-12 months ago.


Meanwhile, our media and the 50% of people that always figured that "things were stacked against them" are in a paroxysm of joy. The wise know that will not last -- that is why gun sales are breaking all records. When the fools realize that yet again, they have duped themselves, they will return again to their natural state of anger. Will BO be able to turn their anger away from where it deserves to be (him) and toward the wise? Who knows, that is why the wise are buying guns.

Gun sales continue up. The FBI's criminal background check system showed a 23% increase in February over the previous year, a 29% increase in January, a 24% increase in December and a 42% increase in November, when a record 1.5 million background checks were performed. Yes, people fear Obama will take away the guns he thinks they cling to, but a likely equal contributor to what The Wall Street Journal's MarketWatch called a "gun-buying binge" is captured in the slogan on one firearms maker's Web site: "Smith & Wesson stands for
protection." People are scared.

I think "scared" is the wrong term -- "prepared" is better. The wise are always thinking of preparation -- a year ago it was saving, investing, not buying on credit, doing well at your job. Today it is laying in some cash/gold, supplies and firearms in case BO continues to take the nation in the current direction. We DO want him to fail to destroy America, but he has one hell of a good start if turning us into Kenya or worse is his objective.

"The heart of fools is in the house of mirth".

Democrats Made Off With Madoff

Media Forgets That Wall Street Rip Off Artist is BIG Democrat Donor | NewsBusters.org

One of my airtight rules: If the negative stories about a person don't mention the political party that they are associated with or have contributed to, you can rest assured that they are Democrats.

Ever see which party Madoff associated with? Nope -- Me neither, so it is no surprise that he is documented to have given in the 100s of K to the Democrats.

The MSM keeps a very careful picture of Republicans as "wealthy and corrupt" in front of the eyes of the sheep. Actually, Republicans are pretty much made up of:
 
- Practicing Christians
- working people of modest means that believe in responsibility and independence vs the Nanny State
- middle income folks that are trying to "work / invest their way up"
- nasty iconoclastic independent thinkers that don't believe "what everyone knows to be true"

Most all of the Wall Street Fat Cats, CEOs, "Intelligencia" and "wealthy over $500K" are Democrats, because they can afford to be, and if you are taking everyone's money, it is better if they like you. Basically the top and the bottom are Democrats -- The plutocrats and the teeming masses looking to be gaurenteed happiness by someone else.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Success for BO

The World's Billionaires - Forbes.com

It's working! There is already less income disparity, the billionaires have lost an average of 23% in the last 12 months!!! GREAT!! Of course most of the rest of us that have worked and saved our whole lives have lost more like 50% because we don't have enough money to be nearly as diversified as they are, but Hey -- LESS DISPARITY!!! If we can just all get to ZERO, then we will all be EQUAL!!!

Won't that be grand? I can hardly wait!

Thanks a bunch to BO and his loyal sheep, things are just going wonderfully!


Why Can't the Left Be Happy?

The A-word | Salon

"apocalypse"???? From Salon, a magazine so left it makes the NYT look middle of the road? EEEEEK!!!!

I think the biggest problem with putting the left in charge is that NOBODY is happy! Did Jimmuh Carter look happy to you when he was President??? I know Slick Willie was trying his best to get his mind off how tough things were going with pizza and BJs at the offfice during the day, but I still think that is a sign of shall we say "not being totally into the job". (or at least I think my management would take that view if I was similarly spending my work time).

It is true that the left is never happy, but I think that they are actually as positive as they can get when they are hopping mad at the imperfection of some feckless Republican leader. When are in charge, they quickly descend into despair and it starts to look to them like the world is ending. Heck, we have only lost $26 Trillion in value out of the market SO FAR, and of course the vast majority of that money wasn't theirs anyway since they were mostly long on hemp sandals and hooka pipes.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

The Democrat Platform

Quoted off this Wikipedia page:

The Socialist Party candidate for President of the US , Norman Thomas , said this in a 1944 speech: " The American people will never knowingly adopt socialism. But, under the name of "liberalism," they will adopt every fragment of the socialist program, until one day America will be a socialist nation, without knowing how it happened." He went on to say: "I no longer need to run as a Presidential Candidate for the Socialist Party . The Democrat Party has adopted our platform."

This guy was early, but he knew of what he spoke. Welcome to Socialist Amerika!

BO's Rove

David Axelrod, Obama’s Political Protector, Is Ever Close at Hand - NYTimes.com

It is nice to be on the left, the media let's you define yourself as you see fit. When you are the Republican version, (Rove), THEY define you -- and they color in the horns and tail that they add in RED to be sure that everyone "gets it". Here? "Political Protector" -- poor BO needs that, because of all the nasty right wingers! See, Bush didn't have ANYONE in the press or on the other side "hoping he would fail" -- nope. There were NEVER any indications of say him being "appointed rather than elected", "most incompetent President ever", etc early on in HIS administration!!

He never needed a "protector", but he had the shadowy evil Rove in the background!

Monday, March 09, 2009

Hey Hill-Billy, WRONG BUTTON!!

VIDEO: Wrong red button - David S. Cloud - POLITICO.com

For starters, what could possibly be a more reasonable way to try to "improve" relations with Russia than to give them a BIG RED BUTTON!! Let's see now, has there ever been any BUTTON involved in US / Russian relations??? Oh well, as long as we are being stupid, lets just muddle on. Hey, let's denigrate the previous US administration to a foreign government that we might have to do tough negotiations with!!! That's smart, shows the US people elect STUPID PEOPLE from time to time --- er, well, IN THE PAST!!!

Here we are, let me mention my wonderful self Hill Billy, qualified for this post by hanging around a womanizing husband that treated me like crap for a long time. Oh, and of course there is Joe "let me copy your paper" Biden, and the legendary BO, failed community organizer from Chicago.

See, it says RESET !!! Oops??? It doesn't??? You mean our most brilliant in the history of the universe administration can't find anyone that knows the difference between "reset" and "overload" in Russian??? Hmmm, damn!!

Ok, well at least nobody in the MSM or late night TV will make fun of the BO Administration, so that is good. Too darned bad that we haven't cleaned up the rest of the media yet, so no doubt some right wing zealot idiots will pick this up and take it the wrong way. No matter -- soon we will have all that "hate media" off the air and have those wingnuts rounded up and "dissappeared".

Anyway, the new administration is tough, fair, and SMART ... especially SMART!!!

Gotta love this one off another site in passing:

Translation gaffes are nothing new. President Kennedy famously declared himself a jelly donut standing in Berlin. President Carter's translator, wishing to express the commander in chief's enthusiasm upon arriving in Warsaw, mistakenly told the stunned Poles that Carter would like to make love to them.

Let's see here ... Kennedy, Carter, Obama??? Pattern? They are all the "smart ones", right? How could such a thing happen to them? I'm guessing "right wing plot" -- only reasonable explanation.

Saturday, March 07, 2009

A Conflict of Visions

This book by Thomas Sowell takes it's place in 3rd position in my all time book hall of fame behind "Closing of the American Mind" and "Ideas Have Consequences". The book is smaller in the scope of ideas dealt with, but much more reachable than than the other two books.

The central theme is that there are two primary visions that people and "schools of thought" have as their initial "pre-analytic models of thinking".
Constrained - Largely the Judaeo / Christian view of man as "flawed, incomplete, incapable of reaching perfection". Social goods must be obtained by providing incentives and disincentives to allow individuals and society in general to move forward. Much of human knowledge is implicit -- buried in traditions, mores, institutions and practices that are effectively unconscious. Trying to make rapid and supposedly "well understood" change due to supposedly superior modern knowledge is likely to destroy rather than improve the situation of most of society.

Unconstrained -- Man is the measure of all things and man's basic character is good and clearly perfectible. Rather than attempting to vaguely move forward via indirect incentives and disincentives, the most intellectually and morally superior people of the current time must take direct action to achieve results. The results desired are clear -- equality of economic OUTCOME, "justice" of all sorts, recognition of each person as a unique, special and worthy individual. Since human kind is moving forward, those alive today are best able to decide what is best -- history, tradition, laws, institutions, cultures, etc are dangerous in that they are always less perfect than the currently most advanced thinking of the current intellectuals. 
Naturally, nobody is purely constrained or unconstrained, but in general, conservatives start from the constrained vision and liberals start from the unconstrained. Communication between those of different visions is extremely difficult. As Sowell says after discussing some common terms like "equality" or "justice":
One consequence .. is that those with different visions often argue past each other, even when they accept the same rules of logic and utilize the same data, for the same terms of discourse signify very different things.
One of those very different things is process vs results. The unconstrained vision person will believe that some good, say "equality of income" can easily be directly achieved by adequately communicating it to the masses, and if needed simply "making it so" via redistribution of some sort. The constrained vision will believe that any such attempt will be highly likely to reduce the overall ability of the society to produce goods and end up leaving all worse off. They see "equality of income" as something barely of any use if the standard of living of the whole of society can be improved more reasonably by having inequality of income.

There are countless examples in the book of how various thinkers -- Rosseau, Smith, Jefferson, Hobbes, Hayek, Mill, Burke and fit into this framework and how it helps make sense of the vast differences in how people look at the same issues. The fact that most people will deny all manner of facts in order to maintain their vision is also covered.

 For example, even though "National Socialism" in Germany had been widely praised by the unconstrained camp prior to WWII, the descent of something that they generally admired into a vicious totalitarian regime forced them to abandon their former name "socialists" and take the one that the constrained vision previously held "liberal". They changed their name, but they never changed their belief -- which of course is what actually led to the disaster in Germany, not the name.

I recommend the book very highly, and it is especially important in these times as the US seems to be shifting from a constrained vision (the one held by our founding fathers), again toward an unconstrained vision as we did under FDR and to a lesser degree during the LBJ "Great Society".

BO Supports Cheney

The Obama Justice Department Adopts the George W. Bush Administration's Legal Stance on Presidential Powers - WSJ.com

I applaud this of course, but it is amazing to watch how the MSM allows the BO admin to say one thing in order to be popular with the sheep, and then do another. GREAT, if the "other" keeps us safe, not so great if the hidden agenda is messing up the economy or opening portals for terrorists.

The Obama Justice Department has adopted a legal stance identical to, if not more aggressive than, the Bush version. It argues that the court-forced disclosure of the surveillance programs would cause "exceptional harm to national security" by exposing intelligence sources and methods. Last Friday the Ninth Circuit denied the latest emergency motion to dismiss, again kicking matters back to Judge Walker.


Yes We Did!

John Yoo Says Barack Obama's Assault on George W. Bush's Antiterror Strategy Will Inhibit Counterterrorism Officials - WSJ.com

But maybe we can't any longer thanks to BO and company? The evil John Yoo, demonized of late in the MSM writes a short sweet article that states the obvious. If terrorists attack on US soil, the US troops aren't going to seek a court order before moving into whatever position they take up for cover. Had US forces followed such rules during the civil war, it could have never have been fought, let alone won by the North, and THEN where would BO be?

The hatred of Bush lives on and it appears that it will now drive the BO minions and the MSM to tie our hands ever more firmly -- unfortunately, most likely until we fall on our faces and eventually some opportunistic terrorist will put a bullet in the back of our collective head.