Sunday, February 08, 2015

Heresy In Science? Ocean Volcanoes

Undersea Volcanoes Could Affect Climate Change : Discovery News:

Back in the old days when I was young, it was important to point out that science was always looking at new data, thinking new ideas, and a constant challenge to the world of religion and tradition.

Today, we know that science is settled however, it has become the religion and tradition of the day -- and while we don't burn those that question it at the stake (at least not yet), we do label them "deniers" and make constant claims that they are "dangerous" and ought to be removed from any position of power and social interaction if possible.
The climate-driven rise and fall of sea level during the past million years matches up with valleys and ridges on the seafloor, suggesting ice ages influence underwater volcanic eruptions two new studies reveal. And because volcanic chains suture some 37,000 miles (59,500 kilometers) of ocean floor, the eruptions could pump out enough carbon dioxide gas to shift planetary temperatures, the study authors suggest.
In what used to be science in my youth, this is called data -- in the same way as CO2 levels, we have to be VERY cautious of an old element of science called causality, as in "correlation is not causality"!

It turns out that ice cream sales and drownings are correlated -- when ice cream sales go up, drownings go up, and when ice cream sales go down, drownings go down. The way the human brain works -- always looking for "explanations", it is easy to jump to the "aha! ice cream CAUSES drowning"!

But alas -- for the "aha person", and WHEW for the ice cream lover, both are "caused" by a third factor -- hot days, which sends people to the beach and makes them crave a cool treat. I'm rather surprised that drownings and obesity have not yet been blamed on "global warming" -- most everything else has!

So while this article would lead you to think that the volcanism is caused by the ice advancing and receding, it may well be the other way around -- or both just a symptom of some other common factor.

Another heretical thing to say today is that it C02 in the atmosphere may well be an effect of warming as opposed to a cause -- as ocean water warms it can hold less gas so it releases it, and as it cools it can hold more so it stores it  -- so C02 may well be an effect of warming as opposed to a cause.

Humans are searchers for causality however -- we want to know Why? -- so it is very easy to get the masses to jump to the idea of causality for C02 and completely ignore the more likely factor of it merely being an EFFECT of climate cycles.
Ice ages are driven by regular variations in Earth’s orbit. These changes in tilt, eccentricity and orbit create climate cycles that last 23,000 years; 41,000 years; and 100,000 years, respectively (at least for the previous million years). Sea level may rise and fall by some 330 feet (about 100 meters) during these climate swings.

Hmm, only "Ice Ages" are driven by these regular variations? How about the interglacial warm periods? Have they in the past been driven by neanderthal campfires?

In the "good old days" of long ago -- like the 60's and 70's, it was very important to point out how DANGEROUS  religion was, since it encouraged people believe in "dogma" that could prevent them from having an "open mind".

The fact is that humans tend to be dogmatic. We have a need to have "models/stories/explanations" that are "good enough" to let us live our lives. There are problems when ANY part of society is too strong, because when people get into power, they tend to get very fixed about whatever it was that put them in power and don't want changes that might reduce their status. The idea is to have church, press, branches of government, a market, etc to prevent any one element from gaining too much power and preventing society from moving, growing, changing, competing, etc.

So, when the Catholic Church ruled, it was dogmatic and wanted to keep power. Science was the upstart. Today, science is right up there with modern expanding Statist Government as being masters of the world, so unsurprisingly, science has become dogmatic.

While religious dogmatism CAN be bad, unless the church IS the state, it is not of much significance -- at least for Christianity, the important part of religion is eternal, and the kingdom is "not of this world".

"Scientific dogma" however is a dangerous oxymoron -- it removes the primary focus of science which is hypothesis and experiment, and replaces it with dogmatic writ, inquisitions and name calling -- denier being the new witch. Dogmatic science is no longer science -- it trades the very essence of science for short lived supposed power.

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