Monday, June 08, 2015

A Little Climate Sausage

No Pause in Global Warming - Scientific American:

The famous quote " Laws, like sausages, cease to inspire respect in proportion as we know how they are made" certainly applies here -- as it really does everywhere relative to the works of man. Once we know the trick, the magic is gone. When you solo in an aircraft, some of the magic is gone, and after 30 year career I'm sure it is very much "a job". Only the works of God -- the birth of a baby, life in general, consciousness, etc retain their respect, because as much as we try, they are still miracles -- we can't duplicate them.

I suspect a lot of folks in the Climate Industry are more than a little put out by this study -- the IPCC has already said that they disagree with the analysis, it is easy to see why!
The study was inspired by some new metadata, the data behind the data, that provided clues that scientists weren't properly accounting for certain types of measurements. Specifically, there have been a proliferation of buoys over the past 40 years and the survival of an antiquated measurement technique used by ships. 
Buoys have increased global coverage of the oceans by up to 15 percent since the 1970s, but they have a known cold bias compared to measurements taken from ships.
Darned shame that those buoys have a "cold bias" compared to data from ships! I've read a few other articles on this, but the basic deal is that they decided that the ship data during the day PRIOR to the '90s was WARM BIASED -- like sailors pulled in a canvas bag during sunny days, set it on the deck and put a thermometer in it. The climatologists guessed that the sun warmed the water, **SOOOO** they threw out the daytime measurements and went with NIGHT! Wala ... the data prior to the "pause" was COOLER, thus the "pause" went away!

More warming -- by starting from a different base, the very essence of the whole Global Warming scam ( 1860 was VERY cold, end of Little Ice Age, we HAD to warm unless we were slipping into a real ice age).

The "sausage making problem" is many sided --  making use of regular old ships that kept track of inlet water for their cooling systems is suspect beyond belief! First of all, what is the calibration on your typical ship inlet temp gauge? -- hint, it ain't 10ths of a degree! Second, even if the gauge was PERFECT, can you imagine the accuracy of seaman 3rd class "Juan" reading the gauge and writing down the temp? Anything within 5 degrees is certainly "close enough"! This is true for gauges, bags, or whatever.

What measurement do suppose gets written down in the midst of an ice storm at sea with 40' waves 20 degree temps? Does Juan gamely run out on deck with his bucket and thermometer, or does he write down "yesterday minus a degree or two"? The cooling system isn't likely being taxed very much in these conditions!

Secondly, SURFACE TEMPERATURE???? ! Anyone that has done any more or less modern fishing as a surface temp readout on their boat. The surface temperature varies by at least 5 degrees depending on a lot of factors -- wind, currents, sun, what the boat is doing (if you are backing up, your outwater goes right by the probe), etc. It's a "general relative idea" ... if water temps are in the 50's, it is cold ... if they get in the 60's things are looking up. Readings from 45 - 55 degrees in the same day, morning to evening with the next day being 48 - 53? Very likely -- "temp is around 50!" ...

Cold bias on buoys? LOTS of ways to explain this -- one would expect ships to pay a lot more attention to higher surface temps than low ones, they need the water for cooling. If it is a hot day, captain or chief engineer almost certainly demands a good reading -- cold day, whatever.

Ships move around a lot, buoys don't. Ships tend to go into ports which are shallower / warmer sections of water -- in fact, they spend a good deal of their time around sea lanes and populated areas. HOPEFULLY buoys were placed with some sort of a random pattern. The discovery of a "cold bias" is totally understandable if so.

The belief in the "Settled Science of Global Warming" demands that the public believe the conclusions, agree when they are told that "the pause doesn't matter" (when it is reported at all), and get excited about the latest shocking new revelation in the media -- "New Ice Shelf Found to be Melting"!!!!

Reports of "No Pause in Global Warming" are disconcerting to the sheep  after the experts said there was -- it is like "Cholesterol No Longer Bad" ... or "Oatmeal Not as Beneficial as Thought", "Alcohol Good for Your Heart"! ... oh wait, "Coffee Better for Heart than Alcohol" ... and on and on.

The sheep WANT to believe, so it is hard on them when their masters can't get their stories straight. No doubt meeting some of the "experts" in person would be enough for many "just plain folks" to ask the question -- "How in the hell do these people survive from day to day in the real world"?????

To the extent that more people can figure out that our modern "emperors" of government, media, science and education are generally completely naked intellectually, the better off we will be!

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