Reality Wrong Again

The 'Fairness' Fraud - Thomas Sowell - Page 2:

"In other words, the fact that reality does not match the preconceptions of the intelligentsia shows that there is something wrong with reality, for which somebody must be blamed. Apparently their preconceptions cannot be wrong."

"First, do no harm" is a good  short conservative maxim.



"Who is to blame" may be similar for the "progressive".



Sowell covers "fairness" yet again in his inimitable style. "Progressives" assume that they know how things SHOULD be, so when reality doesn't meet their preconceptions it MUST be somebody elses fault.



"It's not my fault" is another classic liberal line. In fact, one pretty much just needs to listen to a pre-school playground to understand liberal thought:



-- "It's not fair"!



-- "I'm going to tell"!



-- "Gimme" !



-- "She/he is cheating"!



-- "I can't"!



Perhaps understanding "liberals" is much easier than it sometimes seems?



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How Leftists Fly

GOP Crocodile Tears Over Jobs | RealClearPolitics:

Since natural laws don't apply on the left, they simply grab their bootstraps and pull ... and then they fly! If you don't believe they fly, you are obviously a "denier" and should perhaps have your taxes audited!

See, the Republicans are complaining that the CBO says that raising the minimum wage will cost 500K jobs. They believe in the old time economics where each person employed has to bring in enough money to cover their wages, government mandated taxes, possible government mandated benefits or fines like BOcare, PLUS add enough profit to the bottom line to make it worthwhile to hire them.

In the modern Democrat universe however that is "foolish". Even though we have been following their policies since '09, and really '07 when they took over congress, we have 8 million LESS people employed than we did in '07!!!

But here is how they propose to "improve the economy" via the bootstraps from here:

The first thing to do is extend the long-term unemployment benefits that expired at the end of last year. According to the CBO -- whose word, apparently, is now holy writ among Republicans -- this simple measure would add 200,000 jobs, perhaps as many as 300,000. 

Then ... 

The CBO has estimated that canceling the across-the-board reductions in federal spending known as "sequestration" would preserve 900,000 jobs a year. 

and top it all off ...

That gives us more than 1 million jobs to replace the 500,000 lost from hiking the minimum wage. But Republicans wouldn't want to stop there. To maximize employment, putting as many people to work as possible, the GOP should obviously begin designing a new economic stimulus package, much like the stimulus Obama convinced Congress to approve five years ago. 

According to the CBO, the $800 billion stimulus -- much maligned by Republicans as a waste of money -- created or saved an average of 1.6 million jobs per year from 2009 through 2012. Now that most of the money is spent and the impact of the stimulus is waning, clearly it's time to give job-creation another boost.

Got that??? We have EIGHT MILLION LESS people employed than we did at the top of the last cycle, with millions more americans in the workforce, at least partially due to the policies that Democrats think are "helpful", and the way to get more jobs is to just spend more and more government money! You CAN fly by pulling on your bootstraps!! 

If only Democrats would become so convinced of their wisdom that they would jump off a cliff tugging on their bootstraps one by one until somebody had a "learning moment"!

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Chutzpah and Economic Numbers

 US Constitution, Article 1, Section 7:1

"All Bills for raising Revenue shall originate in the House of Representatives; but the Senate may propose or concur with Amendments as on other Bills."

I've seen a few "facts" floating about about how great a job BO is doing! All sorts of numbers about deficit reduction, economic improvement including jobs, etc. It reminds me of how he has the chutzpah to take credit for oil production going up on his watch. In the real world, our increased oil production is 100% the result of hydraulic fracking in shale which BO has much to do with as I do. Actually less, since he has tried to stop it, regulate it, and has stopped the Keystone pipeline.

If you have been listening a little too credulously to MSM outlets (it is easy to do, we ALL soak in it!), you may need to refresh your memory. Bill Clinton for example DID NOT "balance the budget". A short perusal of the Constitution plus a slight remembrance of the howling as Republicans "cut" (reduced the rate of GROWTH) in Medicare, plus took other "mean, hard hearted and cynical" actions on the budget that overall SLIGHTLY reduced the rate of GROWTH in government spending, PLUS (and most importantly) releasing the productivity of the American people and creating growth in the economy. One of the things I loved about Reagan was that he constantly reminded us that the engine of all good things is economic growth, not government!

The combination of the MSM controlling the story line, and the general poor memory and natural desire to believe the current narrative allows 90% of the population to live in an MSM wonderland where Slick Willie or BO fights valiantly against the evil Republican forces trying to CUT TO THE BONE (reduce the rate of GROWTH) in spending on Medicare, Military benefits, Food Stamps, Head Start for wonderful innocent little children, all because of their inherent evil and the fact that they are beholden to awful profit seeking business!

Then, when nothing bad happens because of the "cuts", "sequester", "shutdown", etc, and the economy starts to show signs of life, who pops up like a Jack-in-the-box saying "I did it, I did it!!" but the President. Naturally, if the president has a "D" next to his name, the media gets all gushy about HIS success!

If it is an "R" however, they have usually already been pushing hard on an economic and tax agenda that the media found "draconian", so when the economy improves, "it just happened" ... which in BOTH cases is more true than not, since the best thing government can generally do is get the hell out of the way!

Both Slick Willie and BO ought to be INCREDIBLY grateful for their Republican Congress. Without it, Slick would never have had what he and the MSM trumpets as his singular achievement -- BJs with pizza in the Oval Office, oh wait, I meant "his" balanced budget!

BO would not have had the impressive feat (for him) of seeing the unemployment number below 7%!! WOW!! (it was under 5% in '07). Of course we are not talking about the labor participation rate that is the worst now that it has been since the '70s!

Don't expect the MSM (or BO) to be applauding the results of the Republicans feeble attempts to slow the rate of growth in the federal spending juggernaut anytime soon.

Florida 2014, Carnival Paradise Cruise

FL 2014 - Photo Stream:

Sitting on our balcony at the Lani Kai in Fort Meyers Beach Florida trying to capture a bit of our 2014 "spring break".

We left Rochester and West Bend last Friday, Feb 14 with Marla's mother Evie along. I had a rough day driving through sketchy road conditions with a Buick with not so good summer tires. We saw a semi and a number of cars and trucks in the ditch or worse, but we made it through to about 70mi N of St Louis where Marla took over on better roads. We made it to Cape Girardeau Missouri. When we got up in the AM it was 16 degrees, and we still saw some snow until about 70 miles N of Memphis. 

We stopped in Memphis for some killer BBQ at Tom's ... ribs, brisket, pork, the works. Very solid, featured on DDD. We made it all the way to Tallahassee Sat night and I was glad we didn't have to do the trip down in 2 days. Had a nice seafood meal at Barnacle Bills. 

Made the easy run to Tampa Sunday. Had a great PM meal at Bahama Breeze sitting on the deck in 72+ degrees -- third time I've eaten there. Business to Verizon at Temple Terrace, stayed across the road on a previous winter retreat. I love their plantain. 

Hopped on the Paradise Monday and had an easy and fun ride to Grand Cayman ... mostly 80s, sunny, just soaking it up. Picked up some Glenrothes scotch for $45 a bottle ... $90+ in Rochester. We ended up getting 4 liters of alcohol on the trip, declared it (along with a cuban cigar), but customs just put the declaration on a spindle and said "Welcome Home". We must not have that smuggler look!

We did a tour of the Mayan ruins in Cozumel with a driver that made Mexico sound like a socialist paradise while we were driving through neighborhoods that reminded me of the Bronx in the early '80s ... they looked like there was a war and Mexico lost. Guess there was. The Socialists won!! He also had an infinite respect for the Mayans -- did his best to make human sacrifice and killing any kids born that were less than perfect as "culturally advanced". Perhaps Hillary will bring him in to head HEW. 

Marla then let me retire to the "Owl Sanctuary" (Hooters) since even she was put off by getting accosted by the hawkers at the Mexican restaurants nearby. The girls didn't speak english very well, but they seemed to have sort of a universal communication capability -- plus free wi fi, which for old guys is about as important as anything. Marla stopped by a couple times to dump more items, and when the table collapsed it was time to head for the ship. 

Nice run back to Tampa, slow port entry due to fog in the AM, but no big deal since we were not catching a plane. Picked up the rental and headed down here to our Lani Kai. 

The hotel is sort of stuck in the 1950s ... not fancy at all, but reasonably clean. 40 yds to the beach on sand that is like talcum powder. The sun can beat on it but your feet don't burn. $2.50 Bloodys from 8 - noon, killer rum runners for $5 during happy hour 4-6. Great wings, shrimp, crab omlet, etc up on the swinging hammock dining deck on the 6th floor. Lots of laid back live and XM oldies rock and Jimmy Buffet ... with a little Chili Peppers, Cheryl Crow, etc thrown in. 

Marla is working this week ... and I'm DEFINITELY NOT! One of the benefits of IBM remote work these days. 

Three more days in Paradise and then it is back to the reality of sub-zero nights. Oh well, we DO miss the kitties, and no doubt there will be some level of excitement to get back home!
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Ice Age Preview

Stunning Ice-Covered Great Lakes Seen from Space (Photo) | LiveScience:

The picture in the linked article gives a nice visual of  one of the reasons why ice over most of the planet is the standard earth climate (it's white), and the last 7-10K years is a somewhat unusual warm period relative to the last 500K and likely last 3.5 million years.

This link gives a bigger picture with the salient image being:

Note that in this NOAA graph:

1. The cyclical nature of solar impact on the N hemisphere is shown. Note what is happening to it now. 
2. The cyclical nature of one of our best proxies for global temp (antarctic ice cores) shows that about 130K years ago the globe was likely close to where we have been in the last 10K years on the warm side. With like 100K years of relatively cold between, being our "normal climate". 
3. The chart shows that increase in CO2 in roughly 100K cycles is also normal, so we are appear to be where one would expect the next cold cycle to begin. 

I'll admit, I want to see the slip into the next ice age happen. Selfish? I suppose, but the set of people that are around for that event is very select -- you have to have your <100 year lifespan hit a 100K year target. Some may say that I should "care about all the people that will die", but my view is that there is absolutely nothing that we can do to prevent this cycle, it is as natural as birth and death themselves, so it is GOING to happen at some point. Why not in my lifetime?

Certainly my biases are affected by looking at such data in the 70's, when "90% of the scientists" thought were WERE at that point, but it wasn't nearly so politicized.

What we have seen the past couple of years COULD be a harbinger of that slip. The record late spring snow, shivering the last weekend in July with a high failing to reach 60, ice building at both poles, and now cruising toward a record number of below zero nights here in N America with massive snow cover.

The solar cycle is heading down, and it appears that every 100K years it goes especially low. The amount of white in the N hemisphere goes up (as the Great Lakes picture shows) and as that article mentions, that has wider effects -- later spring, cooler summer.

It tends to build on itself, and since our natural climate is NOT "1951-1980", but rather those squiggles you see on the chart between the yellow band anomalies, it is a fairly quick move to cold. We could well be strongly into it in the 30ish years a lucky me would have to still be around.

But I could well be wrong. That chart is just "more data". Even if my theory is correct, we could well be a few thousand years away, since even though the yellow bands are pretty regular, a lot of that ice core data only goes back 500K years, which means THAT yellow band must have been warmer and longer. Data is a cruel thing -- our human perspective and our time perspective in particular is so inappropriate to many aspects of our world, that humility is the primary element of scientific wisdom.

Perhaps "97% of scientists" need a bit of a cool down to recall that overarching fact?

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The Kamikaze Caucus

Kim Strassel: Another Misguided Cruz Missile - WSJ.com:



Good article on the circular firing squad that is doing it's best to scuttle the Republicans slim hopes of taking the Senate.



CONSERVATIVES are to be the party of principle first, but it has never been all that clear what the Republican Party in America is. The Democrats have always been the party of "POWER by whatever means necessary baby!!!".



Republicans have made runs at "justice" ... ending slavery, giving blacks the vote, ensuring the they were actually allowed to vote, etc, based on principle. All those efforts faced staunch opposition from Democrats.



"Progressives" have been a major force in both parties -- Teddy Roosevelt being the big Republican "progressive".  "Progressive" is another oxymoron like "liberal", the best definition is paternalism enforced by the state. Prohibition was an example of a "progressive" project, as was eugenics, forced sterilization for the "less fortunate". The National Socialists in Germany were unabashedly "progressive", but when they didn't turn out to be so wonderful, the term "liberal" was stolen from the ACTUAL liberals -- or "libertarian" wing of the more conservative parties.



So Republicans have always had an "identity problem" -- while the media likes to claim they are the party of the "rich", that is definitely not so ... the vast majority of the wealthy in this country are Democrats. Including CEOs, Hollywood Stars, media personalities, Sports Stars, Wall Street Tycoons, and of course Lawyers.



In gambling, the big rule is "the house wins". This is also true in politics, and "the house" is made up of 90%+ Lawyers -- State and Federal, but of course the big money folks are also part of "the house" -- they prefer a government controlled playing field where their risks are bailed out by the government and their rewards can be taxed lightly or not at all. (they are HUGELY in favor of income earning folks in the $40-$500K range paying VASTLY more taxes)

That is why we find when a Democrat tries to appoint people they are all 10's, 100's of thousands or more out of whack on taxes. The IRS is part of the corrupt system that rewards the friends of the the ruling party and punishes it's enemies. Being the right level of Democrat freind means that you are exempt from things like high taxes -- you are a freind, taxes are for the enemies to pay!



Reagan formed a coalition that is very damaged now,  and as this article points out, teetering. The Tea Party is an unabashedly upper low and ACTUAL "middle class" movement -- meaning folks from around $40K INCOME to say "< $500K" in INCOME. The media and the Democrats, but I repeat myself, get VERY angry about folks like that having the gall to think!



Note, I said INCOME, not WEALTH!!! Because of the income tax, we live with a good many fantasies in this country. Reagan formed a coalition of that "income middle class" + elderly and religious folks that still cared about values at that time. The Democrats like to call people that make $150, $200, $300K ish "rich". A few years of that maximum level of income is "nice", and if one watches their Ps and Q's, lives WELL below the lifestyle level one would "think" such an income would buy, invests wisely and has some luck, you might be able to have something.



Most people don't -- they borrow heavily all the way up the scale, spend a lot on cars, vacations, etc, and maybe invest in a lot of popular products that primarily make investment people wealthy. Then the plant closes, the market crashes, the housing prices drop, etc, etc, and they are back in the "needs assistance" class -- which is what the system the Democrats set up is exactly as planned!



The Democrats have used abortion, gay marriage, added government assistance and programs and vastly increasing amounts of public employment (much of it via contracting) to lock in their power base solidly. Romey was wrong about the  47% takers vs makers ... it is more like 53% primarily takers. Doesn't mean they don't work, and don't work hard, but they believe that the same "house" that is owned by lawyers, wall street, hollywood, the super rich, etc is actually going to make their lives better.



The party of power could care less about the benefit of anyone but themselves,  least of all those that are willing to be the "controlled" -- sometimes known as "the sheeple" part of their voting block. Over 90% of the blacks, over 70% of the women, over 70% of those that receive some sort of government "benefit" -- rising of course with BOcare. Those that consume a diet full of public education and mass media that either never thought they had a shot, or have lost faith for more than being wards of the state are way too afraid to question the hand that (for now) feeds them.



So we kill the general competitiveness and innovation of the nation by increasing the transfer from the small business owner and the $40-$500K income level as well as future generations -- making sure that they know their future is hopeless before they ever even get out of school.



To the extent that the ruling class cares, which in general they don't, their belief is that they will be able to ride out the implosion -- sure, many of the sheeple that voted them in might live in absolute squalor and death, but by that time they will have fully institutionalized the kind of corrupition we see under BO.



The Republicans are now a rump party. W was our last faint hope, but he was too much of the old line patrician kind of R like his Dad, and not nearly the kind of communicator that was needed. We screwed the pooch with the '06 election and it has been downhill from there. I see nobody on the horizon capable of transmitting the relatively simple message that the vast majority of Americans have been completely duped, and those that look around a bit are just waiting for the inevitable final fall.



It becomes hard to know what to cheer for -- a Republican win that might stave things off a very tiny bit, another Republican rout that would return us to the '07-'09 kind of free fall, or just some treading water, which is the most likely. Very very few even have a remote handle on the seriousness or our situtation, and games like Cruz is playing are very much rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.



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Unapolagetic and Weightless

And Now for Something Completely Different | Power Line:

I agree with PL, Kate Upton weightless is TRUE innovation!

Isn't it great that on the left, the people they approve of are supposed to be PROUD of WHO THEY ARE!!! Like a "minority" like "women" who are actually a majority, can be PROUD ... well, unless they are too proud of how they look, too "perfect", maybe too white, too wealthy, or too Christian ... or "randomness forbid", conservative!!!

The left is very much like the Amish or the Medieval Catholic Church.  If you agree with their dogma, you have a right to "their view of happiness" ... which includes a special kind of scolding pride. If you have any disagreements with their views on everything from eating, drinking, how you look, to where you shop, what you do for a living, what kind of car you drive, etc, etc, you darned well better be APOLOGETIC!!

Gay - Proud. Gun owner - Apologetic!  Poor drug user - Proud. Wealthy conservative - Apologetic!

Muslim with wife in burka behind you - PROUD! Christian sitting with family in church - APOLOGETIC!

and so it goes.



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Abusing Sub-Human Mongrels

Nugent Apologizes for Calling Obama 'Subhuman Mongrel':

I'm quite certain that "sub-human mongrels" .... whatever they are, and wherever  they may be found, were just as put off as Chimps, Nazi's, Shrubs, Village Idiots, Incurious George, Cheney Sock Puppets, Bush Baby's, etc, etc when just about every hollywood personality and media pundit was having a field day beating up on W.

Ted Nugent apologizing?? Seriously? What sort of standard is this? Are going to have Rap Stars, Keith Oberman, Chris Mathews or James Carvelle  apologizing for similar or worse statements?

Not likely.

It might be nice if wondrous decorum was the standard of the body politic, but such has NEVER been the case in the US. In fact, unless one is going to set up a Stazi, SS, or KGB there is no hope for such decorum anywhere.  Of course if you DO set up such an organization, even if it kills millions and incarcerates millions more, the set of people either saying (or being accused of saying) "something derogatory" is limitless.

Such was the reason that we had a 1st Amendment and formerly BOTH sides of the political spectrum in the US took a VERY dim view of things like the IRS enforcing political will, the NSA doing political snooping, folks that make movies that are not complimentary about "dear leader", or as we saw last week, the FCC deciding to "ask media folks about their biases".

Our left is now in such ascencion that they feel the need to silence those that fail to bow to their majesty -- while of course their own rhetoric is free and even encouraged to be as nasty as whatever whim strikes them at the moment. Does one expect the North Korean leadership to censor their own speech?

Earthy freedom has never been about smooth, nice, tidy and "respectful".

When today's MSM says "the dialogue is coarse", they mean that there are still people that are not on bended knee to their self-declared superior intellect and morals, and deign to say so in direct terms. They have no qualms at all at using the most vile slurs possible against those people, but they definitely want that opposition SILENCED!

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No Right to be Shameful (or Shameless)

Opinion: Arizona's shameful 'right to discriminate' bill - CNN.com:

The insanity of "banning discrimination" lets one glimpse the abyss of meaninglessness. If one is unable to discriminate, how would one decide what was discrimination??? If all is the same, with no ability to discriminate, then all is nothing.

In the real world, you would not be able to even conceive of such a fallacy ... you would not be able to discriminate the letters from the white background, and even to write in some language is clearly a choice, and therefore a form of "discrimination".

In the mostly imaginary  political world however, it is EASY -- and "productive",  in fact, it is the essence of politics prior to the creation of the Constitution, known today as "the Chicago Way". Separate your enemies from your friends and punish the one and reward the other!! Those that think like you, have an "approved color" or creed are naturally immune to "discrimination", or sanctions for discriminating against others!! They have the power, they make the rules!

As this column says, they get to decide what the "right" side of history is, and to sanction those that are in disagreement with their dogma. Simple!

Christianity had it's "Spanish Inquisition", and one would have thought that after all the 20th century ideological examples --- Stalin, Hitler, Mao, Pol Pot, etc, that American leftism could have avoided this path.

Apparently not. Let's ban gravity, pain, death and ugliness as well.

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A Brave Weather Soul

Winter Outlook 2013-’14: Mixed signals, mostly ‘average’ winter overall? | Updraft | Minnesota Public Radio News:

"It takes a brave soul to forecast a colder than average winter overall for Minnesota given the long term trends."

We know why it takes a "brave soul", but WHY do we accept that? We now know that 2013-214 is in the top 10 winters on record for sub-zero nights in MN ... and still piling them up. This "indicator" has been used over and over ... and is used in this article to claim that "MN is the fastest warming state".

We also know that this winter (and to some degree last winter) are not likely to be used as data indicating that longer term predictions may be wrong. While "sub zero nights being rare" was trumpeted as "proof of climate change", we now will just hear silence about those previous strong pronouncements (for at least a year or so).

And for all but "brave souls", even mentioning what we have and are experiencing is a sign that one might be a "denier" ... and one CERTAINLY would not want to be one of THOSE!!!

To deny the sacredness of modern "settled science" is HERESY -- perhaps one will need to be "re-educated".

Man ALWAYS has a religion -- that which he considers sacred and beyond question. The meme that created the most successful civilization in the history of the world was that it was MUCH better to hold matters that are beyond science -- ultimate meaning, purpose, limits of human knowledge, morality, etc in religious awe, so we would be better equipped to just "go with the data", "no bravery required" on issues of short term mortal physical stuff, and save religious awe for that which is truly transcendent!

Hint ... converting temperature to the level of the sacred gives just a tiny hint as to our current degree of "lost".



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Liberty, Mills, and Lying to Ourselves

Three Cheers for the Nanny State - NYTimes.com:

Reading this article reminded me of the old "Everything I say is a lie" ... "I'm lying". Wrestle with that for awhile if you choose, but the lady that wrote this ought to pay more attention. If everything I say is a lie, then me telling you "that was a lie"... but if that is a lie, then ...

"We have a vision of ourselves as free, rational beings who are totally capable of making all the decisions we need to in order to create a good life. Give us complete liberty, and, barring natural disasters, we’ll end up where we want to be. It’s a nice vision, one that makes us feel proud of ourselves. But it’s false."

"WE have a vision of ourselves" ... well, some of us do. Primarily the folks that are like the lady writing the article. True Christians certainly don't have that vision -- they believe that both their heart and their reason are extremely self oriented and deceitful.

But those cheering for the Nanny State certainly DO believe that THEY, and the "proper authorities" have that vision and it is CORRECT! John Stewart Mill, Augustine, Jesus, Moses, Buddha, etc were all wrong, but the Statists are RIGHT! It is amazing how "refined" the human species has become in just a few thousand years. It must be because ONLY the "liberals" have gotten smarter through "natural selection", and the poor folks that don't see their brilliance have been "left behind".

Mill was wrong about that, though. A lot of times we have a good idea of where we want to go, but a really terrible idea of how to get there. It’s well established by now that we often don’t think very clearly when it comes to choosing the best means to attain our ends. We make errors. This has been the object of an enormous amount of study over the past few decades, and what has been discovered is that we are all prone to identifiable and predictable miscalculations.

Yup, Mill was wrong ... err, actually, maybe MOST people have a terrible idea of "how to get there", but if you allow liberty, SOME will figure out ways that work, and they may well be REWARDED because MOST were wrong, but since ALL had liberty, SOME figured out things that worked! In biology it is called "evolution" ... make a lot of tries and the ones that work WIN! 

The crucial point is that in some situations it’s just difficult for us to take in the relevant information and choose accordingly. It’s not quite the simple ignorance Mill was talking about, but it turns out that our minds are more complicated than Mill imagined. Like the guy about to step through the hole in the bridge, we need help.

Yup, that is A "crucial point" ... in fact the STANDARD "progressive" problem in almost all situations is confusing ends with means and failing to get the means right, then not realizing it and running everything into the ditch. Eventually, they are so pissed and disgusted, they start killing people that disagree with them because they MUST be right!!!!

Of course, what people fear is that this is just the beginning: today it’s soda, tomorrow it’s the guy standing behind you making you eat your broccoli, floss your teeth, and watch “PBS NewsHour” every day. What this ignores is that successful paternalistic laws are done on the basis of a cost-benefit analysis: if it’s too painful, it’s not a good law.  Making these analyses is something the government has the resources to do, just as now it sets automobile construction standards while considering both the need for affordability and the desire for safety

See, "The Government" ... you know, the folks that brought us BOcare, the TSA, the NSA, the Vietnam war, 17 trillion in debt, etc, etc, ... THEY ... THOSE PEOPLE, they are the ones that "have the resources"! Why? Well maybe because money stolen from some people buys "real smarts" ... or maybe giving a lot of people cushy but insanely boring  bureaucratic jobs somehow makes them "more qualified" than normal humans. Mill was clearly an idiot to think that what we needed was "a lot of attempts", and some mechanism that gave us feedback as to what worked.

I'm  an idiot ... I have doubts. I actually did like the book by Daniel Kahneman and his research partner Amos Tversky, "Thinking Fast and Slow", but next to John Stuart Mill, they are about as profound as Reverend Moon next to Jesus. YES!!!! We have A LOT of "cognitive biases" ... and even WORSE problems ... we are mortal  human sinners!!!  The really sad part of it is that knowing that is like a guy whose parachute won't open in free fall -- he is totally understanding of his condition, but he is completely helpless to help himself. 

If he is in that situation because he and 100 other people fell out of a jet, the the author of the column would be the one proudly yelling, "Hey, you are all in free fall, and I have figured that out!!!!" 

Only since the real world lasts longer than free fall even from a jet, she wants to pass laws requiring that we all flap our arms!!



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Trans-Cocaine

Transgender kids: Have we gone too far? - The Globe and Mail:

I believe it was Robin Williams who said "Cocaine is God's way of telling you that you have too much money".

I'd argue it is Satan's way, but the principle is the same ... it is a bad idea.

The end of this article states:

"It’s a mark of social progress that we are increasingly willing to accept people on their terms, for who they are. But maybe we’re manufacturing more problems than we’re solving. If we really want to help people, we should remember the old rule: First, do no harm."

We may be "increasingly willing to accept people on their terms" unless they are pedophiles, black conservatives, fundamentalist Christians  or rich people that don't state the lefty party line as well as Gates and Buffet ... among of course many others whose "terms" are not meshed with the liberal elite's "most favored peccadillo" status.

This condition is always to be the case -- the issue is not that people are now "more accepting", it is that one cultural elite segment holds stronger sway than any used to, and the groups that they accept are both different and MORE restrictive when it comes to actual thought. There used to be more of a competitive market of culture, where religion had a major place at the table, philosophy, classic literature, classic arts, small rural colleges, military colleges, national fraternal organizations,  etc, etc

Now it is all Ivy League, Madison Avenue and Hollywood. True, there is Fox news and talk radio, but those views are firmly labeled like a cigarette pack with "these views are hazardous to your social standing".  Certainly there are both rebels with and without causes, of which I count myself one (Christian / Conservative) ... but those that understand the game and the costs and are still willing to take the now more real (IRS, NSA, ...) risk of being counted are dwindling.

There is no more of a conservative phrase than "first do no harm". Within it are buried a host of assumptions about humility and the huge value of "things that work", even far short of "perfectly" (whatever that means in this mortal world). The felt in the bones appreciation for "the devil you know vs the devil you don't", and the irrefutable fact that the devil is in the details, details, details ... on to infinity.  There is no human "proof" so good that a "Black Swan" can't show it's face at some future time under some unknown condition and undo the best laid plans.

How is a person less than 20, or even 30, ever really "sure" of hardly anything? "Comfortable with your gender?".  Every time I see a dance floor, I realize that I'm still not all that comfortable with being 6' 4" and large. Sure, it has it's moments, but it isn't that great for letting you "fit in". It was much more of a problem when I was a weak uncoordinated big kid getting beat up by smaller better developed peers (I didn't turn 5 until the fall of my Kindergarten year). Puberty fixed the "strong" problem, and the final growth spurt put some more distance on the "bigger" front to make me not an "easy target", but still, very easy to see in a group for good and ill.

Maybe we should all be regularized to the same height, weight, rate of development to make us more "comfortable"?

Maybe the core problem is this post 60's obsession with "comfort" in all forms. Who was it that decreed that life was to be "comfortable"? How much harm have we already caused in the rather dubious cause of "comfort"?

Perhaps DIScomfort, and even DISagreement with some regularized cultural view is much more likely to produce vibrant, growing, creative and FUN cultures and nations. Perhaps a Republic ruled by a set of laws on the light side that allowed a wide divergence of actual views with true mutual tolerance?

Nah, could never work today. Time for a "benevolent" tyrant that rules by decree! If there are any confused kids, probably better to make a quick diagnosis and roll out the drugs and the surgical instruments. All that better to make you "comfortable"!

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Kansas Through the Looking Glass

The matter with Kansas now: The Tea Party, the 1 percent and delusional Democrats - Salon.com:

Even though OZ is shown for obvious reasons, "Alice" is the right book ... although I can also see Franks saying "pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!"

The main premises of “What’s the Matter With Kansas?” were straightforward enough. First, I pointed out that the great right turn, which began in the 1970s and continues to this day, has not served average people well. Second, that a large and increasing number of those average people were voting for privatizing and deregulating Republicans even as their situation grew worse. From these two points arose the obvious question: Why?

Remember that "great right turn" the US took in the '70s? I guess Watergate, followed by Roe V Wade, then Jimmuh Carter, losing Iran, and the hostages started it all.  I know those big rightward moves really hit me right between the eyes.

Yes, Yes, Reagan won, and we did level out in the '80s, but Government STILL grew like topsy, and our schools and universities still remained reliable left wing propaganda disseminators.

Starting with Carter and moving forth through W, Fanny and Freddy Mae continued to produce cheap loans on homes federally insured -- and some high zoot Democrats on Wall Street did a lot of work with leverage and got bailed out. BO got the most of his BILLION dollars to buy the WH from Wall Street ... 2nd lawyers, and 3rd Unions ... especially teachers.  But the '08 crash was all due to "Republicans" when you live through the looking glass.

Remember Billy and Hilly? They were elected as sharper left turn from already left sliding HW Bush of the "No new taxes ... never mind" pledge. Of course they screwed things up enough in only two years to give the Republicans their first ownership of Congress in FIFTY YEARS. Just to show how very "right" this nation has been. Slick "triangulated" both politically and sexually and kept himself in the WH and entertained as R's cut the rate of growth in entitlements from hypersonic to supersonic for which they received massive chastisement and Slick received the credit for the resulting meager surplus as Silicon Valley gave the Dutch Tulip Bubble a run.

W was elected and promptly did a gigantic federal prescription drug benefit. Now THAT is a pretty reactionary part of that "rightward shift"! I think his motto was "Meaner and Harsher" because of the rabid mood of the right, and Gore's was "Kinder and Gentler". Anyway, Gore went on to become a billionaire shaking down business for worthless "carbon credits" (deposit a bunch in my account and I'll say good environmental things about you), and selling his failed cable channel to oil money from the Mideast ... because giving money to the fortune of an "environmentalist" helps them keep their private jet and yacht fueled, plus convinces most of the massage women to provide the right level of "personal service".

People in Kansas certainly have no right to think of folks like Gore, Wall Street Bankers, University Professors making a 100's of K a year in education and consulting income, plus of course MANY government workers making over $100K a year now with super fantastic benefits relative to those hicks in Kansas don't firmly have the rubes in Kansas "best interests in mind"!

It is interesting to read a column like this and understand just how far much of our left has strayed into an alternate universe that exists solidly between their ears. Their faith is as powerful as Muslims flying planes into buildings, and they are just about as ornery toward anyone that doesn't agree with their dogma, or imaginary world view. We have "right turned" through "Gay Marriage", BOcare, skyrocketing poverty and spending and an unprecedented flight from the work force in just the past 5 years under what I assume Frank sees as the masterful leadership of King BO of the royal edict!

Frank concludes his all knowing screed with the following:

Surveying the wreckage of Brownback’s experiment last year, one Kansas journalist was moved to pen an obituary for the state. But Governor Brownback sees things differently. Thanks to years of passionate work by his army of elite-fighting everymen, Kansas is now “open for business,” he says, under the loving mercantile gaze of a “Big God.”

See, Kansas is "wrecked", seems easy to check,  just compare it with "progressive paradises" like CA, IL and NY on something simple like unemployment.

Kansas 5.9%

California 8.7%
Illinois 9.2%
New York  7.5%
http://money.cnn.com/interactive/economy/state-unemployment-rates/

See, "through the looking glass", those states are wonderful and Kansas sucks. All of those states not only have horried unemployment compared to Kansas, they have huge budget problems, murder problems, and other pathologies. But they are ruled by geniuses and Kansas is "wrecked".

Such is life through the looking glass, and how might one ever communicate reasonably with those that live down the rabbit hole?

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Understanding Aristocracy

Opinion: We need a vibrant middle class - CNN.com:

America was founded as a Constitutional Republic rather than a Democracy because our founders understood something that the columnist doesn't. Those that have been successful in a country, want to have families that carry on their values and have invested actual wealth ... maybe for generations, have a LOT more at stake in a nation than a minimum wage worker,  undocumented Democrat, or the "politician de jour".

So we have 2 Senators per state and we once had Senators appointed in the states rather than elected by popular vote prior to the 17th amendment in 1913. Many of our founders wanted more control by the aristocracy, and it seems pretty clear that they were right.

When people that have invested their lives and their futures SUCCESSFULLY in a nation, they are not likely to allow unborn future generations to be saddled with debt due to benefits voted to the current generation.

Do we "need" a "vibrant middle class"? Probably, but certainly not "at all costs", and there would seem to be pretty strong evidence that whatever policies BO thinks are going to achieve that goal (if in fact that is actually what he wants to do), it certainly isn't working. Guess what. The same policies worked equally as badly under Carter.

Much like driving through some stressful snowy roads to get to warmer weather (which I did Friday), there is often some risk / stress / work / uncertainly required to get to worthwhile objectives ... say cruising the Caribbean with a beverage in hand (just to name a random case). Remove the "challenges" and things do "change", but most likely in the direction of "stasis" rather than "growth" ... getting in shape, getting educated, getting rich, getting to FL, etc all require effort. Stating that "we need a vibrant middle class", and calling the rich "clueless" really doesn't move the ball forward.

The "rich" may be oh so "clueless" as  the link from the main page claims, but much in the same vein  as "If Einstein is so smart, how come he is dead", if the rich are "clueless", how come they are rich and you aren't?

That is ALWAYS a question that pisses off the left, but why? Pro golfers play way better golf, swimsuit models tend to look better than the rest of us, and I definitely can drink the author of the article under the table. So?  Actually I'd like to lose enough weight so such a test might be in question, but right now it isn't .

It is absolutely certain that every rich person passed up, and continues to pass up the ability to be poor. The inverse is not true -- nor CAN it be true! Figuring that out would go a long way to helping the author of column  understand the real world.

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To Soothe Is Not My Inclination

The Arrogance of Mitt - Mark Bowden - The Atlantic:

“To soothe is not my inclination,” says Mitt, who sees Obama as a certain disaster. “This is really serious, guys. This is really serious. I cannot believe that he is an aberration in the country. This is following the path of every other great nation, which is we’re following greater government, tax the rich people, promise more stuff to everybody, borrow until you go over a cliff. We have a very high risk of reaching the tipping point sometime in the next five years.” He frowns and shrugs."

I find that paragraph and the title to be very informative.

The author clearly thinks that it is a foregone conclusion that Mitt is wrong -- wrong and "arrogant". One could suggest that ANY predictions about the future, 5 years, 50 years or 100 years are "arrogant", but we all make them. We start a career, a family, an education, reading a book -- assuming that it isn't futile for a myriad of reasons. Our death, the death of a family member or dear friend that "changes everything", war, pestilence, economic collapse, hemorrhoids, inflation. All things great and small can and will affect or even devastate our puny predictions.

Does a man like Mitt run for President for any other reason than to serve and to do a better job than the current occupant of the White House? I find it hard to believe he does ... unlike BO, he has accomplished much, and his eyes are set on eternal issues, not merely the next 4, 8, or 80 years of America in this mortal coil.

What about BO? is not "arrogant"?  Two autobiographies before age 50? Does his picture show up under "narcissist in the dictionary as it should yet? For a Jr Senator whose only real "experience" outside of law school was as a "community organizer" -- a rabble rouser, a man worshiping Saul Alinsky who dedicated the manual for "community organizers" to Lucifer to reach for the presidency of the former "greatest nation on earth"?

 We know from BO's books, the company he keeps and his actions in office that BO really does intend to destroy the nation that used to be America. Mitt is right. We set ourselves up. BO may have a different ultimate goal than the rest of the folks trying to take rather than make, but deep down they all know that their path is corrupt. They may or may not be dimly aware that it is the standard path to "Greece" of "once great nations", but there is a sense that taking rather than making can't last for long.

So we go down. Babylon, Egypt, Persia, Greece, Rome, Britain ... and now America. Only God is sovereign, our puny nations are but tares to the fire.

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