Sensor Drift

Well, there was a solid NSIDC prediction that in 2008, the North Pole would be ice free! Only the evil "disbelievers" had an doubt at all. OOPS, small problem, the sensors were off and it didn't melt -- and now the ice in 2009 is tracking ahead of 2005-2008. Hmmm.

"The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) has been at the forefront of predicting doom in the arctic as ice melts due to global warming. In May, 2008 they went so far as to predict that the North Pole would be ice-free during the 2008 'melt season,' leading to a lively Slashdot discussion. Today, however, they say that they have been the victims of 'sensor drift' that led to an underestimation of Arctic ice extent by as much as 500,000 square kilometers. The problem was discovered after they received emails from puzzled readers, asking why obviously sea-ice-covered regions were showing up as ice-free, open ocean. It turns out that the NSIDC relies on an older, less-reliable method of tracking sea ice extent called SSM/I that does not agree with a newer method called AMSR-E. So why doesn't NSIDC use the newer AMSR-E data? 'We do not use AMSR-E data in our analysis because it is not consistent with our historical data.' Turns out that the AMSR-E data only goes back to 2002, which is probably not long enough for the NSIDC to make sweeping conclusions about melting. The AMSR-E data is updated daily and is available to the public. Thus far, sea ice extent in 2009 is tracking ahead of 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008, so the predictions of an ice-free north pole might be premature."

Free Speech Lefty Style

NAACP calls for firing of N.Y. Post cartoonist - CNN.com

BO's own book is full of "how he would like to get the white blood out of his system" and the "World in need run by White Man's greed" actual line and thinking.

His new AG says that we are "a Nation of racial cowards".

I suppose we ought to be thankful -- they aren't rioting in the streets and killing folks like the Muslims did over a cartoon.

Yes, yes, white folks are bad, black folks are good. In fact, they are so good, that if they just FEEL offended, people ought to lose their jobs over it. What kind of "freedom of the press" does one have in that sort of a world?

Oh, that's right, NONE -- the whole idea of Campaign Finance, Fairness Doctine, etc is the unilateral disarmament of "speech that the left doesn't like".

That is how we get "unified".

Why The Market Sinks

IBDeditorials.com: Editorials, Political Cartoons, and Polls from Investor's Business Daily -- Is It Any Wonder The Market Continues To Sink?



Most of this has been covered in the Blog, but a good summary list. The picture is worth a thousand words.

Markets care very little about the past, it is the future that people (used) to invest in. The Palin nomination / McCain uptick gave them a ray of hope, but that hope is long gone now.

We desperately need some hope that is "old and real" -- responsibility, paying personal and national bills, the people that earn the money keeping the money, real risk and real rewards -- simple things like that. We are back to the 70's -- now the questions are how long, and must we REALLY go all the way back to the 30's or an even worse place before we realize the basic truth.

There never has and never will be a free lunch!!!!

A Rant For the Ages

Rick Santelli's mortgage rant - THE WEEK

Somebody had to say it, said the Colorado Springs Gazette in an editorial. The government is sending the message that people who bought houses they couldn't afford win, and those who live within their means foot the bill. Santelli's rant was one "for the ages, full of wisdom and truth," by a man who "understands the danger of a country that rewards failure, by taxing all success."

Finally, at least SOME people are starting to awake to the disaster that we have brought upon ourselves with 2 years and running of "change"! The core of Democrat change is always "Punish those that do good, and Reward those that do evil!"

BTW, the Republican version of that is not "the opposite", but rather "Man is a poor judge of good and evil -- seek God, markets and other higher powers".

Hey, It is Possible to Fail on All Fronts!

RealClearPolitics - Articles - 'Kick Me' Diplomacy

The left found it very unimpressive that post 9-11 we didn't have a single attack on US soil, and until a year after the Democrats took over Congress, we generally had markets that were rising.

Well, now are markets are in the tank and the world is treating us like a weak skinny kid with big ears and broken glasses. Of course, our MSM is unwilling to even acknowledge the vote of "no confidence" from the markets, but they are completely silent on the decline in the American position abroad.

Sorry folks, it is VERY possible to be broke AND be attacked by foreign powers. One just needs to vote in a clueless and generally unsuccessful community organizer from Chicago as president, and the outcome is all too predictable.

BO Agrees with ... Bush???

Obama administration keeps Bush view on Afghanistan detainees - CNN.com

Wow, What is up with this?? Here we have Bush, the "worst President in US History", and BO, the "greatest US president ever" -- and what? The best agrees with the worst on a critical issue relative to the War On Terror??

How surprising!

Democrats For Truth!

The Case for a Truth Commission - TIME

Patrick Leahy leading the charge for "truth and non-partisanship" is like Teddy Kennedy leading the charge for "temperance and respect for women" (or maybe teaching young women to swim, at night, out of a car under water).

How can you be more reasonable than this?

One path to that goal is to appoint a truth-finding panel. We could develop and authorize a person or group of people universally recognized as fair-minded and without an ax to grind. Their straightforward mission would be to find the truth. People would be invited to come forward and share their knowledge and experiences, not for purposes of constructing criminal indictments but to assemble the facts. If needed, such a process could involve subpoena powers and even the authority to obtain immunity from prosecution in order to get to the whole truth.

First, you get "fair minded folks" (like Pat I suppose) that have "no axe to grind". Simple! Their only "straightforward mission" would be to "find the truth"!! How could anyone be against this? Why, couldn't Pat just lead it up himself? He certainly seems like a "fair minded guy, with no axe to grind, only interested in the truth"? Isn't that what ALL Democrats really are?? I mean NONE of them are partisan in any way, right?

During the past several years, the U.S. has been deeply divided. This has made our government less productive and our society less civil. President Obama is right in saying that we cannot afford extreme partisanship and debilitating divisions. As we commemorate the Lincoln bicentennial, there is a need, again, "to bind up the nation's wounds." Rather than vengeance, we need an impartial pursuit of what actually happened and a shared understanding of the failures of the recent past.

Now, there is a real news item -- "during thelast several years". What would "several" be? The past two years when we have had a Democrat Congress and a Republican in the White House? The previous 4 when we had very slim Republican majorities in Congress and a Republican in the White House? Maybe from 2001-2002 when we had Democrats with a one seat majority in the Senate and the rest Republican? Golly it just isn't stated. I wonder why that is?

It seems like there really couldn't be much better than a good old "truth commission" to help bring this nation of ourse together!

Dems to New Orleans, Drop Dead

Power Line - That Was Then, This Is Now

Anybody that doubts that the whole idea of some "Katrina Debacle" caused by supposed incompetence and insensitivity in the Bush administration can be certain it was only politics now. In the first major spending bill by our first Black President, after YEARS of howling of the "inadequacy of spending for New Orleans" -- on dikes, repair, etc, how much is there for New Orleans in the greatest Porkfest in history? Not one thin dime.

Katrina and New Orleans served their purpose, and then some. Now they can drop dead for all the Democrats care. Time to pay off some new constituencies!

Dukes of Moral Hazzard

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123500760093118475.html

I love the title. One of the things that was very clear from both Buffet's and Greenspan's books was the extreme danger in the "loss of moral hazard" -- in other words, what happens if people and businesses no longer suffer the losses of poor luck, decisions, lack of work, etc and conversely if they are unable to realize the gains of good luck, good decisions, solid work, etc. They both discussed it, and realized that previous government actions (which they both generally supported) were "pushing the envelope" on the topic.

Any doubts that we are well over the edge now? I find this paragraph captures it well:

Let's focus on the plan's effect on the individual borrower. Anyone with mortgages owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be able to refinance to lower rates if his mortgage is between 80% and 105% of the value of the home. This is a sweet deal that is not available, for example, to many renters looking to buy homes now. Sadly for those who deferred the gratification of homeownership, the 20% down payment has now become industry standard. But at least their taxes will allow other people to stay in homes they can't afford.

Prior to Reagan, there really was some sense that folks that went to college trying to "get ahead" were kind of "chumps". I remember more than one high school or other person explaining it to me. It went something like this:

"By wasting 4 years of your life in school PAYING good money, while I went out and got a good union job, I got a great head-start on you college boys. All the "stuff" just keeps going up in value (houses, cars, toys, etc), and our union makes sure that our salaries do as well. When you get out of school, you will start at a lot lower pay level and everything you buy will be way more expensive. Going to college is for losers!"

At the time I started my career, my salary was $15,500 in 1978 with 2 weeks vacation, which was a good salary, and a GM Union Autoworker in Janesville was starting out at $25K with a month off and a lot better benefits. A 25+ year veteran, still on the line was making over $50K with 6 weeks+ off and retirement at 30 years at something like 75% of base pay. Had the Democrats remained in power, they would have likely been right on the foolishness of college.

It looks like "we have returned". Education, savings, prudence, etc now appear to be for chumps, and the rewards are for those that "live for today" -- the chumps are going to be required to bail out the folks that ought to be going through bankruptcy.

In a "rational world", the guy that forgoes pleasure today, saves, and in the future buys a home, has the advantage of being able to pick up the foreclosed McMansion for 50 cents or less on the dollar, while the guy that purchased too much home ends up in a flea bitten appt.

In the BO world, the spendthrift stays in the McMansion and the saver sits in the flea bitten appartment and subsidises the spendthrifts habits -- or so BO hopes. As Ayn Rand pointed out long ago, that isn't a very motivational structure, and the worker bees tend to stop working.

Shocking.

Welcome to Ruin

RealClearPolitics - Articles - Slow Drip of Financial Ruin

Couldn't have said it better myself -- put a bunch of Democrats in charge and the MSM cheering them on, and you have a recipe for ruin, and that is what we have!

Senator after Democratic senator stood to disgorge this dishonest rhetoric during floor debate, repeatedly proclaiming the lie that Republican opponents had nothing of their own to offer. But you didn't have to search far to find examples of GOP solutions, such as the one on House Minority Leader John Boehner's Web site. You don't have to agree with his more moderate and targeted package of immediate tax relief for working families, more help for the small business sector (the nation's biggest job producer), no tax increases to pay for spending, jobless assistance and home price stabilization.

However, simple honesty should compel the Reids and Pelosis to refrain from saying the opposition has no plan. Democrats, of course, were able to get away with this slander because few in the media challenged it or bothered to report it. The media also have failed to challenge the economic methodologies that are the basis for claims that the stimulus will produce millions of jobs.

Reason is the facility of the mind used to intelligently form judgments, make decisions and solve problems. Emotions are feelings, desires, fears, hates and passionate drives—all of which are the tools that Obama deployed to sell the stimulus package to a gullible public. Endeavor to go through all 1,100 pages of this stuffed piggy and you'll find little rational connection between the nation's problems and its solutions—other than if we throw enough money out there, some of it will stick to the wall.

Obeynomics

Obeynomics

Nice little article ... the leadoff:

The results are clear. The market hates Obama’s stimulus package and just about everything related to Obamanomics. Or shall we call it Obeynomics? (I'll explain in a minute.) Stocks are down 27% since the Nov. 4th election. Stocks have plummeted more than 40% since Obama sewed up the Democratic nomination in June.

Capital is on strike. And why wouldn’t it be? Private capital has no idea what the future holds in terms of taxes, regulation, trade, deficits and the value of the dollar. None whatsoever.

Capital has figured out one thing, however. The politicians in Washington most hostile to private investment are running the show. Example: David Obey, chairman of the House Appropriations Committee. From Wikipedia: “Obey is one of the most liberal members of the House; he considers himself a progressive in the tradition of Robert La Follette.”

So the people that have a choice of "invest or not" seem to think that a political regime that is anti-business, anti-investment, and has an unknown economic plan makes for the wrong environment in which to sink a lot of capitol into things you expect to make money on?

Ya suppose?

Headless Body, Gutless Press

The caption on this picture was "happier times" -- meaning before good old Muzzammil beheaded his wife. In the "truth is stranger than fiction" camp, he founded "Bridges TV" 5 years ago to combat "the negative image of Muslims". Go figure.

The reason that our media provides very little coverage of this story -- say as opposed to some nowhere Southern ministers wife that kills her hubby with a shotgun, or some preacher that has an affair of some sort, is because they are "unbiased and like to avoid sensational stories".

Hmm, MIGHT there be another reason?

Havard Killed Wall Street

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_hassett&sid=a_ac69DqFutQ

There is an interesting hypothesis here that bears some thought -- especially with a proud Havard Grad as President. I love books, I love book knowledge -- but I also grew up on a farm, fish, hunt, shoot and have engaged in real business and investing. Bottom line; reality isn't in a book or a computer model.

A lot of what has been loosed on our nation is the idea that we are in a "post common sense world". Reaganomics was pretty much just "common sense" -- set people free to create and take risks, allow them to keep (and lose) the results of that freedom, and "on balance", things will be better.

No longer. Those simple ideas are now "incompetent" we have PHD Nobel Prize winners like Paul Krugman making pronouncements of what MUST be done and what WILL happen after it is done. Maybe. I've seen a lot of very smart and well educated people be wrong, and a lot of not so well educated but much more humble folks be right.

It's The People Stupid!

RealClearPolitics - Articles - Deconstructing Krugman

When Slick Willie was running against Bush Sr, the mantra was "it's the economy, stupid!" -- the media loved it, calling Republicans stupid is always good sport. Perhaps we have a turn about here -- BO and his economic advisors are "doing it by the numbers", but people don't always behave "by the numbers".

But why is the economy performing below capacity in the first place?
Many reasons, too many to list here. And why won't it simply recover on
its own, as it has many times in the past? Here things get a bit more
interesting. Like many economists, Krugman points to Keynes's "paradox
of thrift": in uncertain times, ordinary people defer consumption and
businesses postpone investments. The economy shrinks below capacity,
because of people's desire to save money.

It's hard to escape the sense that the best economists and the
President of the United States are blaming ordinary people for the
economic crisis. If only we'd spend our money instead of save it, we
wouldn't be in such a big mess.

This is where devotion to mathematics gets the better of those who
would do better to try to understand people. Krugman is very concerned
that the liquidity trap we're arguably in will degenerate into a sticky
and persistent deflationary spiral, with far lower output for years to
come (an American "lost decade").

People feel uncertain about the future -- and the government spending Trillions of dollars of their future money at a time that every bone in their body tells them to save makes them even MORE uncertain! So they spend even less.

The economic wizards are so intent on following their models and
ignoring the people, that they will waste tremendous resources trying
to postpone a reckoning that is fated to come. What we really should be
talking about is mortgage finance. We have to figure out how to reduce
the burden of mortgage debt on millions of people (including people
that can perfectly well afford their payments, but are unaware of the
creeping effects of deflation on their purchasing power).

Illusion Agreement

Op-Ed Columnist - Paul Krugman - Decade at Bernie’s - NYTimes.com

It isn't often I find something to agree about with Krugman, but I think he is right about the "illusion of wealth", he is just really wrong about the time period.

First of all, in this world, wealth is ALWAYS an illusion -- that has been known since the Bible came out. Is it a special illusion "the last 10 years"? Maybe, but he has the trend right -- wealth has been even ore illusionary than normal since FDR signed FICA into law. That is when we as a people started signing up for belief in a false Ponzi scheme that makes Madoff look as honest as Abe Lincoln. We has a nation have been on the path of taking money now and transferring debt to future generations since we bought into that scheme.

Once we are all in a "group scheme", the little schemes just pile on. Sub-prime loans and Fannie and Freddie are another example -- if the Government is PUSHING and taking part in serious mortgauge irregularities and "wink, wink, nod, nod" insuring them, well, then why not have some other folks making even MORE money off "the deal"??

At one level this should come as no surprise. For most of the last
decade America was a nation of borrowers and spenders, not savers. The
personal savings rate dropped from 9 percent in the 1980s to 5 percent
in the 1990s, to just 0.6 percent from 2005 to 2007, and household debt
grew much faster than personal income. Why should we have expected our
net worth to go up?

Golly, who was President in the '80s? I bet it wasn't someone that Krugman liked, but at least savings (and most everything else) was better than. What Krugman doesn't quote is that the home credit binge took off from '90 - 2007 ... $2.5 Tillion in '90 to $10.5 Trillion in credit backed by homes by 2007.

So Krugman finally decides that unless we have another WWII level of spending, it will be a "long painful slump". Lovely -- Krugman hates the idea that conservatives are optimistic when Republicans are in power, but I guess the fact is that the left is ALWAYS pessimistic, even when all their folks are pulling the levers!

Since nothing like that is on the table, or seems likely to get on the
table any time soon, it will take years for families and firms to work
off the debt they ran up so blithely. The odds are that the legacy of
our time of illusion — our decade at Bernie’s — will be a long, painful
slump.