Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Killing the Goose?

The government seems to be pretty happy taking $3 Trillion PER YEAR out of a $13 Trillion dollar PER YEAR Economy. Even if getting out of the sub-prime debacle actually cost a Trillion, how many folks would spend 1/13th of their income to make the best effort they could to keep making the other 12/13ths? It doesn't seem to be a hard decision at all when one looks at it that way.



I'm waiting to find an article or politician that explains it as clearly as Paulson did during the Senate Testimony. The GOVERNMENT strongly pushed Freddie and Fannie to take more sub-prime loans in order to keep housing starts moving and lower and lower income people getting homes. Then, after Enron, they passed Sarbannes Oxley that put LEGAL restrictions on the rating of the financial instruments that a business could keep on their balance sheet. Sounded good at the time.



When Bear went down, Moody's and Std and Poors started looking at the "mortgage backed securities" and discovered that sub-prime was everywhere. They downgraded the rating. Once they did that, the Financial Officers and the CEOs HAD to sell the mortgage backed securities--they were ILLEGAL to keep on their balance sheet. Selling them was and is stupid, but they had no choice--the law says sell or GO TO JAIL!! Wham, credit instruments that were 97% secure and had maybe dropped to 95% secure at the worst now had to be DUMPED, and none of the businesses that would normally buy them could make any use of them. Even though on the long term their value is almost certainly secure, they are no longer LIQUID--nobody will buy them TODAY. Meltdown caused by an unintended side-effect of well intentioned government regulation.



BUT, SOX was "Bi-Partisan" BOTH guys like Dodd and McCain voted for it--because they thought it was good. I'm sure there is plenty of blame to go around, Wall Street is certainly not blameless, but Washington is FAR from blameless, and it isn't for the reasons that they seem willing to admit. So they are playing "chicken" with the $13 Trillion US Economy that could take the whole world into a depression. Why?



Well, hey, BOs poll numbers bumped up on the crisis, so crisis must be good! I'm convinced that the MSM and the Democrats could care less if they drive the country to 70% of the population starving and the other 30% killed by terrorists. As long as they can blame Bush and get power it will be more that fine with them!



Unless our elected idiots choose to continue to playing politics rather than fixing an unforseen problem that they had a very large role in creating, there is no way that anything over 10-15% of those mortgages are going to default. The $700-$1Trillion "exposure" is very likely to turn them a PROFIT, just like the Chrysler bailout (that was MUCH less of a good idea) and actually the S&L bailout even eventually turned a profit.



I think the people that make the $13 Trillion a year are perfectly willing to be demonized if that is the price to keep the economy running. Better to have a bunch of prima donas that have never produced anything but hot air in their life going "shame, shame, I told you so" when a big hunk of the problem is actually of their creation than to actually let the credit markets dry up and destroy the business "goose" that keeps turning out that $13 Trillion every year. Do Dodd and BO understand that? I really wonder to sit and listen to them, but I believe they must. They simply don't care about ANYTHING but raw political power, no matter what the level of damage caused!

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