The Singularity Is Near

The Singularity is Near is the latest book from technology cheerleader and futurist Ray Kurzweil. There is no doubt Ray is extremely intelligent and understands technology at very deep level given his pioneering work in optical character recognition, speech recognition, and electronic music. He has authored three books on the subject; “The Age of Intelligent Machines”, “The Age of Spiritual Machines”, and now "The Singularity".

The essential claim is that we are rushing headlong to a point in the quite near future (2045 according to Ray) where due to one or more of the “GNR” (Genetic, Nano-Tech, Robotic) technologies, “everything will change” in a way we can’t really predict now because a machine intelligence will arise and be instantly able to replicate over the net around the globe to all computing. Ray can see us rushing to this point due to Moore’s law and “the law of exponential returns”, and although he makes a lot of positive predictions, he admits that where we go beyond this new intelligence arising will be out of our control. (See Terminator movies for a slightly less positive view of what might ensue when the machines take over).

One doesn’t need to read on very long in this book (or his others) to know that Ray doesn’t have anytime for existing religions -- apparently that is why he is working so hard on his new one which says that among the many great outgrowths of all this technological advance is the fact that Ray is going to live forever!  (He is 60) By the 20-teens there will be enough genetic engineering and miracle drugs to insure that nothing like heart or cancer get him before his full 70-80 year current life expectancy. In the 20-twenties, nano-tech will insure that life expectancy is moved out to at least 100 and likely much more. In the 20-forties, no problem, Ray is leaving this biological veil of tears behind and uploading to a nano-tech / silicon super-self.

I got a kick out of his various “laptops”, machines the size of a current laptop that will provide the amount of computing available for one thousand dollars. His 2080 laptop could execute computing equivalent to the total computing power of all human brains for the preceding 10 thousand years in less than one second. Ought to be able to run a dynamite video game on that puppy! I suspect that one might need to have a bit of a lap pad to avoid “slight reddening of the skin” … it ought to have about the same level of heat being thrown off as the surface of the sun, so the cooling fans might put up a little howl and the battery life may not be too long, but hey, at those speeds just think what one can do before going looking for a plug.

Ray is a tad weak on software. It will be “much better” and “much smarter”, but there is a notable lack of anything like a Moore’s curve in the software industry. Too much exposure to Windows may lead people to believe that the glorious technological evolution that drives Ray’s future of wonder might be more like DE-evolution. Perhaps Unix was the pinnacle of software evolution and we are now “reversibly evolving” to the Cro-Magnon era where dumb brutes of Windows programs grunt in approval of the latest blue screen of death. I guess I’m less optimistic than Ray.