Thursday, January 29, 2009

Not All Change is Good

From $80,000 a year to eviction: Hard times in America - CNN.com

In 2006, lots of folks voted for "change" and the Democrats took over Congress. In '08, they voted for the same message and we got a heavier tilt in Congress, and BO as president.

"It's hard not to be depressed during a time like this," she wrote.
"I never imagined in a million years that I would be in such a
situation at my age and at this point in my career. I am humiliated. I
am praying for everyone else out there is who are facing the same
problems."


I have no way of knowing if she is a big supporter of "Change", but she fits the demographic.


Do I think that "everything has happened is due to the Democrat takeover"? No, of course not. We as a nation have been saving little, spending LOTS at both the Government and personal levels and making up the difference with credit for a LONG time. I started work in '78 -- the watchword at that point was to buy as much home as you possibly could, it would go up in value, your salary would go up, and in 2 years you would be sitting pretty -- THEN, buy ANOTHER home and keep doing it. Many folks did, and many of them came out just fine (at least assuming that they quit the pyramid scheme sometime prior to '07). The EXPECTATION was that "everything will go up" -- especially homes, land and the stock market.


What has happened, is that as the economy rose, the expectations and the cry for "more, more, more" at every level have just continued to increase, but the ability of the economy to continue to rise kept reducing because of (among other things) "the law of diminishing returns" -- or put another way, if you make a buck, you can double your income by making two bucks, if you make a $100K, you have to make another $100K to double your income, and it is A LOT harder to make $100K than a buck! Worse, that 2nd $100K is going to get ripped with taxes and mean A LOT less to you than doubling the buck to two would have at that income level.


Even worse, a whole lot of business, financial and government models "required" the ever growing economy. Two main things finally prevented that; reality and expectations. The housing bubble and sub-prime loans provided the catalyst, but they did so on top of the combination of people talking about "how bad things where", and "how much things needed to change". Unfortunately, the fact that no matter how "bad" things are, it is ALWAYS a lot more likely and easy to make them WORSE was completely forgotten. In '06 and in '08 again, people thought that "a vote for non-specific change" was somehow prudent. The US simply rolled the dice and decided that "change was good".


Did we need change? Sure, but unfortunately we needed a change in something close to 180 degrees of the direction we chose. Growth through investment in capital/equipment, massive education improvements (including competition), huge personal and national savings rate increases, improved climate for entrepreneurship, reduction in old ideas like "retirement is better than work", and a host of other things to get our nation off the credit card and on to the earning our lifestyle. Had Bush managed to start investing some amount of money from FICA in stocks, that would have been a start, but that is now considered a "horrible idea".

I don't see any way out of the path we have chosen but a fall to the point where people FINALLY realize that "they have met the enemy, and the enemy is us!". We really CAN'T "have it all" and expect someone else to pay. That kind of logic has always led, and still does lead to most everyone having very very little.



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