Sunday, February 01, 2009

Even $18 Billion Has "Another Side"

'Idiots' Indeed - WSJ.com

BO, the Democrats, and the MSM seem in a huge hurry to demonize Wall Street on their "bonuses". It SEEMS like "free theater" -- hammer away at the street that has lost so much money in '08 and "show them a lesson". Actually, it is amazing what quick studies folks in the business world actually are, they already HAVE the "lesson". Business is the current whipping boy and Washington is going to throw pork around to whomever they think will net them the most votes -- so, they are not lending, buying stocks, investing in new products, nor moving forward with production, because everyone with half a brain looks at everything being done and says "there is no way this can work, we are in for a long term horrible economy". BUT, BO, the Dems, and the MSM still don't get that -- they think these actions are "good for business", so they are basically declaring war on business.

Want to make a bet on how well that works? Look at where the Dow is, job losses, GDP, consumer outlook, housing starts, and a whole host of other stuff, and you can see how confident most people are (not).

A few quick facts about Wall Street bonuses. The pretext for the
political outrage was the New York comptroller's report this week on
the aggregate data for bonuses in 2008. That "irresponsible" bonus pool
of $18 billion was for every worker in the New York financial industry,
from top dogs to secretaries. This bonus pool fell 44% in 2008, the
largest percentage decline in 30 years. The average bonus was $112,000;
bonuses typically make up most of an employee's salary on Wall Street.
The comptroller estimates that this decline will cost New York State $1
billion in lost tax revenue and New York City $275 million. Both city
and state may have to announce layoffs.

What is more, the "Wall Street" of popular and fevered imagination
isn't coming back anytime soon, if ever. Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns
and Merrill Lynch are gone, kaput. Enough bankers have been ruined or
fired to sate class resentments for a lifetime. The remaining big two,
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, are no longer formally investment
banks but are now under the supervisory control of the Federal Reserve.
The Wall Street business model is broken, and not at a particularly
opportune moment for the economy.

Mr. Obama wanted to hit a populist nerve this week because he knows
he may have to ask Congress for another $1 trillion or more to revive
the banking system. He also knows that the core of the economic crisis
is a lending system that remains frozen in a vast lake of toxic,
mispriced securities. In short, the credit system is on strike (see
above).

The U.S. is a long way from getting out from under this burden. The
danger of targeting what capitalists we have left for abuse or
prosecution is that they will stay on strike, as they did in the 1930s.
It won't be pretty this time either.





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